The importance of being hard to beat

Fulham have got through the Christmas period – and got through it unbeaten.

In December, Fulham have sometimes managed to pull a rabbit out of the hat, but a Boxing Day win has been hard to come by in recent times. In December 2023, the results consisted of two famous 5-0 wins, before losing three in a very unconvincing manner and ending the month by beating Arsenal on New Year’s Eve. Fulhamish inconsistency at its finest.

This December, however, has proved to be something different altogether. Fulham haven’t lost a game. Are we becoming a team that’s hard to beat? I for one thought Ipswich were well on for three points on the weekend. Our unbeaten run looked under threat and we hadn’t done enough to win the game. There was a tangible lack of cutting edge in the first half, and a gung-ho effort to salvage a point was needed to keep the unbeaten run going. Many fans will look at that game before a ball is kicked and say we should be looking to take three points. But historically, that is the kind of game that Fulham have actually gone on to lose. Notably, Burnley beat us 2-0 at home last December in a game where the Clarets took their chances as Fulham squandered possession and lacked a threat against a low block.

A new resolve

The unique thing about this run of fixtures is the way the games have gone and who we have played. In each of the games since the 1-4 loss to Wolves, Fulham have been pegged back and could have easily lost control once more, but notably haven’t done so (I’m aware of the possibility of this article being the kiss of death here).

Spurs took the lead but couldn’t beat us. Brighton were pushing for a Champions League space when they equalised, but Fulham came out victorious. Arsenal scored in the second half but failed to get over the line, their dominance of possession couldn’t break a stubborn defensive line. Liverpool came back twice with 10 men, but they never got a decisive grip of that game. Southampton never look like scoring even when playing their best football this year, against us they barely got a look in. Chelsea looked to have victory well within their sights when Cole Palmer routinely struck early in the first half. Bournemouth have caused everyone problems this year, Fulham kept going to ensure they were in the team in the ascendancy. Ipswich was no different, they were dogged but in the end they couldn’t ever really capitalise and kill the game. The point is Fulham remain capable of staying in control with and without the ball for large portions of 90+ minutes against any opposition.

Shift perspective

Many fans are saying that this season has been a season of “what ifs”. Everyone is looking at the points dropped from winning positions. However, the points dropped from winning positions stat is misleading when measuring the overall season. We really should be talking about the underlying numbers in performance. Results are important and each point is valuable. However, performance across a campaign is what drives results. And on the whole, Fulham aren’t performing badly.

This shows us that “what ifs” are slightly hypothetical, and Fulham are still, remarkably, in the hunt for European space. Yes, Fulham are taking fewer possession-based risks against small teams from time to time, but overall, there are more attacking actions. This has led to the increase in the number of defensive actions and therein lies the weakness. Fulham have taken more attack-based risks and so far it is paying off because the defensive actions have been just about firm enough (Fulham have scored 30 goals and have conceded 27). Needless to say, we all hope this continues. But that is the stat that remains, just about, in Fulham’s favour.

To my point about the underlying numbers being net positive, I would like to pose a different set of “what ifs”. What if Fulham are just getting started? What if Fulham are going to be peaking at the end of the season, rather than halfway through it or two thirds of the way through it? What if Fulham are resting Emile Smith Rowe so his fitness and performance are at peak level with less than five games to go? What if we are constantly rotating Raul Jimenez and Rodrigo Muniz because Marco Silva wants to ensure each player can score a game-defining goal? What if Fulham have finally got over their penalty issue? What if Fulham’s ability to play with both a back four and back five leads to an increased ability to see out games? What if squad togetherness sees us finish in the top half this year?

Optimism

A lot of what ifs, but as a season ticket holder of 22 years this season has felt different. The first away win at Chelsea for 45 years certainly felt different. Having something to play for will always be better for sport psychology purposes, whether that applies in terms of game management or in the league itself doesn’t matter. Especially if Fulham remain in contention for a European tour come the season’s close. Bigger picture, each game has significance for us, that is not something we could always say at certain parts of last year. It also bodes well for next season.

Naturally it will take a while for Fulham to be at their peak. So maybe, just maybe, Fulham will peak at the right time this season or flourish next season. Even if it doesn’t work out, and Europe becomes an unrealistic dream, we will hopefully be able to look back at this season and smile. Knowing that 2025/26 will lead to a European dream that can become a more realistic prospect if we don’t make it this time. Marco has always been creating a project at Fulham; did I hear someone say trust the process?

Christmas is usually a period of the season that defines the season’s conclusion. Manchester City tend to come alive over the Christmas and New Year period, they usually begin a run of 13 straight wins or something similarly wild. Fulham being unbeaten in eight over the same congested run of fixtures is not comparable, but does it show a steel and nerve required to finish the season strongly? Hold on to your hats. If Fulham keep being hard to beat and pick up half a dozen more wins, we will be fighting for points at the right end of the table come May. Can someone get us some popcorn please?